Stormy Weather: Brace for More of the Same

Stormy, cold weather is, of course, standard during the winter, but December was exceptionally stormy across the United States, and the wild weather ride is likely to continue in January and February.

The South has been hit especially hard to date. Snow, generally light, fell where it's normally a rarity: western and southeastern Texas, as well as in parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. Of greater importance, the Deep South was pounded with flooding rain, dangerous thunderstorms and even dozens of winter tornadoes.

One of these southern storms turned northward along the East Coast during the third week of December. That created a record-breaking and paralyzing snowstorm (often referred to as the Blizzard of 2009, even though it technically wasn't a blizzard in most locations) from western North Carolina through the Middle Atlantic region. Then, a second massive storm, a full-fledged blizzard (Christmas Blizzard of 2009), pounded the Plains on Dec. 24 and 25.

The stormy December weather was caused by two main weather factors: widespread cold air and an abundance of El Nino-driven southern storms. Both of these are expected to continue in January and February.

The cold air is being predicted by the government's coupled forecast system, a long-range forecasting model that accurately predicted the December cold. It's forecasting colder-than-normal weather in the entire eastern half of the country and all of the Deep South in January. Look for less extensive cold air along the Eastern Seaboard and in the Deep South in February.

Meanwhile, the current El Nino will continue to influence the weather for the rest of the winter. An El Nino occurs when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are warmer than normal. This one has been strong enough to add fuel to the southern branch of the jet stream, resulting in more numerous and more intense storms in the southern part of the country. It should continue at its present strength into spring, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

This means there will be additional storms while cold air is abundant -- a potentially headline-grabbing combination. The details, of course, can't be determined this far in advance, but the cold and storms could merge for major national snowstorms or even Deep South snow. Or the cold could retreat in advance of storms in the Deep South, resulting in heavy rain and dangerous thunderstorms, along with the specter of more flooding, while the north remains locked in widespread cold with little snow. Or it could result in some of everything, as we've already seen.

But no matter what the scenario, the weather is almost certain to be dramatic, just as it was in December.